Expanding carbon intensity to include industrial process emissions strengthens longer-term decarbonization, argue Hu Min, Li Xindi, and Yang Li.

We are nearly halfway through 2026. Global warming is steadily approaching the 1.5°C threshold, and extreme weather events are becoming increasingly “commonplace.” As China kicks off its 15th Five-Year Plan, the goal of reducing carbon intensity faces the practical pressure of “sluggish progress in the first half of the year”—global climate governance has reached a complex and critical crossroads.

This report tracks and quantitatively assesses the green and low-carbon transition of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the decade from 2013 to 2022 using the Subnational Low-Carbon and Green Index for China (Subnational LOGIC), which encompasses 26 indicators across four categories: carbon productivity; carbon emissions (covering energy, power, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture); environmental conditions and land use; and policy systems and public participation. The analysis employs multiple classification frameworks—economic-geographic regions, economic development stages (Pioneer, Leading, Catching-Up, and Developing Economies), national major regional strategies, and energy development positioning—to identify structural divergences in transition patterns. It finds that scores improved across all provinces, with carbon productivity, energy, and power showing nationwide progress while transport, buildings, and industry remain key frontiers for deep decarbonization. The report also presents in-depth case studies of Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Hainan to examine differentiated transition pathways across economic development stages.

Hainan has built and put into operation 37 battery-swapping stations for heavy-duty trucks, providing basic coverage of the island’s main highways and key industrial parks, thereby effectively advancing the transition of new-energy heavy-duty trucks from pilot projects in typical application scenarios to full-scale electrification across the region.

This report assesses the low-carbon transition pathway for Tianjin Municipality under China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trajectories to 2060. It employs a scenario-based quantitative modeling framework, constructing three scenarios—a 2020 Policy Freeze scenario, a Policy scenario, and a Dual Carbon scenario—to evaluate the emission reduction effects of different policy combinations. The EPS Tianjin 2024 model covers five core sectors: power, industry, transport, buildings, and land use and forestry, capturing inter-sectoral linkages and mitigation potentials. The analysis identifies critical areas and priority policies for achieving carbon neutrality, assesses investment requirements, and evaluates the economic and employment impacts of the transition.

On March 5, 2026, Chinese Premier Li Qiang mentioned the “green development goals” for 2026 in the “Government Work Report”: guided by “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,” the country will advance carbon reduction, pollution control, expansion of green spaces, and economic growth, thereby strengthening the momentum for green development.