Expanding carbon intensity to include industrial process emissions strengthens longer-term decarbonization, argue Hu Min, Li Xindi, and Yang Li.

China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.

Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission and 18 other departments, jointly issued the “National 15th Five-Year Plan for Climate Change Response,” establishing for the first time a comprehensive, all-encompassing system of climate change response targets at the five-year planning level.

We are nearly halfway through 2026. Global warming is steadily approaching the 1.5°C threshold, and extreme weather events are becoming increasingly “commonplace.” As China kicks off its 15th Five-Year Plan, the goal of reducing carbon intensity faces the practical pressure of “sluggish progress in the first half of the year”—global climate governance has reached a complex and critical crossroads.

This report tracks and quantitatively assesses the green and low-carbon transition of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the decade from 2013 to 2022 using the Subnational Low-Carbon and Green Index for China (Subnational LOGIC), which encompasses 26 indicators across four categories: carbon productivity; carbon emissions (covering energy, power, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture); environmental conditions and land use; and policy systems and public participation. The analysis employs multiple classification frameworks—economic-geographic regions, economic development stages (Pioneer, Leading, Catching-Up, and Developing Economies), national major regional strategies, and energy development positioning—to identify structural divergences in transition patterns. It finds that scores improved across all provinces, with carbon productivity, energy, and power showing nationwide progress while transport, buildings, and industry remain key frontiers for deep decarbonization. The report also presents in-depth case studies of Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Hainan to examine differentiated transition pathways across economic development stages.