From Fuel to Feedstock
China's Fossil Fuel Turning Point and Implications for Subnational Decarbonization in Carbon-Intensive Industries
English, Chinese
April 2026
Policy Brief
Energy Transition Industry
Summary:
This policy brief analyzes the structural shift in China's fossil energy consumption from fuel to feedstock, identifying provinces with high feedstock dependence and assessing the implications for subnational decarbonization under the "dual control" framework for carbon emissions. It combines quantitative analysis of national and provincial energy statistics from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2019–2023) with a classification framework that ranks provinces based on the share of coal, oil, and natural gas used as feedstock relative to their total final consumption of each fuel. Policy recommendations are centered on accelerating the deployment of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as substitutes for fossil feedstocks in carbon-intensive industries, supported by a case study of Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen industry plan.
Suggested citation:
Yang, Li & Li, Xindi (2026). From Fuel to Feedstock: China's Fossil Fuel Turning Point and Implications for Subnational Decarbonization in Carbon-Intensive Industries (Policy Brief). Beijing: Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). April 2026.
Related
-
How Can the Oil and Gas Industry Navigate the “Deep Waters” of Green Transition?The Petroleum Business Daily conducted an exclusive interview with Yang Li and Liu Xueye, experts from the Institute for Green Innovation and Development (iGDP), to provide an in-depth analysis of the strategic restructuring and breakthrough strategies for the oil and gas industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.Interview AUG 2026

-
Decarbonizing Steel Industry Thermal SystemsThis report examines the low-carbon transition pathways for thermal/heating systems in China's steel industry, reviewing the policy drivers behind decarbonization and analyzing the technological trajectory across near-, medium-, and long-term horizons (2025–2060). It surveys and compares the applicability, economics, and emissions-reduction potential of key technologies—including waste heat recovery, system efficiency improvements, and hydrogen-based metallurgy—through in-depth case studies (HBIS Group's hydrogen metallurgy, Shougang Jingtang's process interface optimization, and Sinosteel/CISP's hydrogen-based smelting reduction, among others). It further identifies the practical barriers to scaling these technologies (high green hydrogen costs, renewable energy intermittency, stranded-asset risk, and weak cross-sector coordination mechanisms), and proposes policy recommendations to accelerate the sector's shift toward integration with renewable energy systems.Report AUG 2026

-
Can China’s zero-carbon industrial parks go global?In March 2026, China’s 15th Five Year Plan set a target to build “around 100 national level zero-carbon industrial parks” – zones for industrial production with net-zero or close to zero carbon emissions. It marked an upgrade to what had previously been a series of pilot projects around the country and catapulted such zones to a national priority.Interview JUL 2026

-
Green Power Consumption Faces New ChallengesWith the rapid growth in installed capacity, the core challenge facing the power system is shifting from “whether we can generate more green electricity” to “whether we can effectively utilize green electricity at the right time and place.”Interview JUL 2026

-
In-Depth: China’s New Energy Sector Moves Beyond “Scale Worship”On July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released the “15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which sets out a systematic roadmap for the development of renewable energy over the next five years.Interview JUL 2026

-
Implementation of the Carbon Peaking Action Plan: Data Centers and AI Infrastructure Integrated into the Carbon Control FrameworkOn the evening of July 9, the State Council officially issued the “Action Plan for Carbon Peaking During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”). As the overarching framework for China’s critical phase in achieving its carbon peaking goal, the Plan sets out systematic measures across five key areas: energy structure adjustment, green industrial transformation, and carbon reduction in priority sectors.Interview JUL 2026
