Highly sensitive to climate change, China is facing significant shifts in its climate system

Yuan Jashuang, Deputy Director of the National Climate Center

As a region highly sensitive to and significantly affected by climate change, China is facing significant shifts in its climate system in diverse aspects.

With global warming, higher emissions are expected to drive more frequent, severe, and dangerous extreme heat events. Over the next 30 years, China’s average maximum extreme temperature is projected to rise by 1.7 to 2.8°C, with the biggest increases occurring in the eastern regions and western Xinjiang. Additionally, the average number of regional heat wave days is likely to rise by 7 to 15 days. Under high-emission scenarios, these extreme heat events could become a regular occurrence, happening once every 1 to 2 years, compared to the current rate of once every 50 years.

In the future, extreme precipitation events in China are also expected to increase faster than total precipitation, with greater variability and intensity. Over the next 30 years, five-day maximum precipitation is expected to generally increase nationwide, with more than a 10% rise in the eastern parts of Northwest China and the Huang-Huai River Basin.

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The onset date of the first high temperature period in China is advancing with extreme and compound weather events

Wang Guofu, Director, Meteorological Disaster Risk Management Division, National Climate Center

The first high temperature period in North China and the Huang-Huai region (between the Yellow River and the Huai River) has arrived earlier than usual this year. Based on the current assessment of meteorological disaster risks, by July 14 China will face compound disasters such as high temperature combined with heavy rain, drought, etc., and this summer may still be extremely hot. The onset date of regional extreme hot days nationwide is advancing at a rate of about 2.5 days per decade. This year, it occurred four days earlier than normal.

Due to climate change, atmospheric circulation has become more complex, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Globally, multiple disasters are overlapping to create compound events, such as high temperature with drought and low temperature with freezing, showing the characteristics of complexity, large-scale impact, and long-term consequences.

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