Insights Library

Browse TTP’s updates on the latest insights and analysis in chronological order below. 

Be aware of changes in climate system behind extreme weather

Xu Xiaonian, President of China Meteorological Service Association

Beijing reported the heaviest rain in 140 years in the beginning of August. As the frequency of extreme weather events continues to rise, concerns mount as to whether the ecosystem that humans depend on has reached a new equilibrium. The global scientific community has indicated the existence of approximately 16 to 17 critical thresholds in our ecosystem, with at least half of them nearing the tipping point. One extreme weather event might be mitigated by prevention and mitigation measures. However, if we are facing a new equilibrium in which “extreme” becomes the new normal, how shall humanity tackle it?

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Risk posed by heavy rainfalls continues expanding

Chao Qingchen, Director general of National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration

In the past, northern China had a mainly dry climate, and many cities in the region, with dense population, had relatively underdeveloped infrastructure to handle extreme rainstorms. Consequently, northern cities are highly exposed and extremely vulnerable to the risks brought by strong rainfalls.

Based on our model’s predictions, there will be an evident increase in annual precipitation in China in the future. In the north, for example, from 2026 to 2045, urban regions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will experience an increase not only in summer precipitation but also in annual average precipitation. There will also be more torrential rains, more days of moderate and heavy rainfalls, a greater number of rainy days and an increase in maximum consecutive five-day precipitation. As urban areas expand, the risk posed by heavy rainfalls continues to expand as well.

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Heatwaves in North China intensified by climate change

Qian Cheng and his research team, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Between June 22nd and 24th, the mean maximum temperature for three consecutive days in June in the North China region reached its highest value in the historical record since 1959. In a quick attribution research exercise on this extreme heat event, our team found that, compared to climatic conditions without the influence of human-induced climate change, the probability of similar record-breaking high-temperature events occurring under current climatic conditions has significantly increased by approximately threefold, with an increase of about 1.0°C in intensity.

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Humanity has entered an era marked by frequent disasters

Wei Ke, Associate Researcher of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

For more than a decade, terms like “hottest summer ever” have frequently appeared. This year, the temperature has reached new record highs. The root cause of extreme heat lies in global warming. The systematic risks of global climate change are universal, unpredictable, and endogenously correlated. Extreme heat is just one facet of the issue. The ‘disaster package’ brought by global warming also includes torrential rains, floods, droughts, wildfires, stronger typhoons, ocean acidification, sea level rise, etc. In essence, humanity has entered an era marked by frequent disasters.

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Urgent need for early warning and prevention against extreme events

Zhai Panmao, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I; Researcher at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

It should be noted that extreme events are indeed becoming more frequent and intense. Until global carbon neutrality is achieved, the situation ahead will certainly be more severe and challenging. The first thing we must do now, from my perspective, is to ensure early warning and prevention against extreme events. As global warming intensifies, its impacts grow, which we must manage to minimize.

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Decoupling economic growth from fossil fuels to protect public health

Cai Wenjia, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University

The health impacts of climate change are rapidly increasing. According to the China Lancet Countdown Report in 2021, around 25,000 people in China died due to heatwaves, which is double the number compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the health effects of climate change and expedite decoupling of economic development from fossil fuel use in order to prevent the health damage caused by short-term air pollution and long-term climate change.

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China’s urban planning needs adapting to climate change

Liu Daizong, East Asia Director, Institute for Transportation & Development Policy

China’s urbanization has taken place rapidly within a short period of time. Much of our urban construction has been influenced by traditional practices and knowledge, which may not necessarily align with today’s climatic conditions. In China’s national planning and construction, we may still be adhering to some norms and standards rooted in the thoughts of 1960s-1980s to guide large-scale infrastructure development. Therefore, we face a significant challenge in adapting to the changing climate effectively.

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